Possible scenario
Deal coalition fractures
22% Chance
The delay exposes a deeper disagreement between Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans and the Trump White House over what was promised. The September compromise loses momentum, reviving uncertainty for offshore wind, transmission and large energy projects awaiting federal approvals.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.2%
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- D-2.2%
- NEE-0.9%
- KMI-0.6%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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