Possible scenario
Brief procedural delay
38% Chance
The pause proves to be a short-lived drafting or sign-off problem rather than a collapse of the White House-Senate bargain. Leaders unveil a package within days, preserving the core trade: faster energy permitting and a path for offshore wind approvals after Trump's earlier blockade.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.0%
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- D+1.9%
- NEE+1.2%
- KMI+0.8%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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