Possible scenario
Coordinated Bitcoin Upgrade
42% Chance
Coinbase's proposal becomes the starting point for a broader Bitcoin governance process rather than an exchange-only policy. Core developers, major custodians, and wallet providers frame the issue as a long-dated key-rotation problem, reducing immediate panic while increasing expectations of a multi-year migration path.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+3.6%
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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