Possible scenario
Hezbollah Iran Backlash
25% Chance
Hezbollah and Iranian-aligned factions frame the revocation as U.S.-directed financial warfare. The response is most likely political and rhetorical, but a sharper backlash could raise Lebanon's domestic-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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