Possible scenario
Sustained Digital Disruption
25% Chance
Russia continues striking communications-adjacent energy and hosting sites, keeping parts of central and eastern Ukraine in degraded service. The outcome is more severe for domestic commerce and government operations but remains geographically contained inside Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.1%
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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