Possible scenario
Hybrid Campaign Broadens
18% Chance
Russia pairs physical strikes in Ukraine with cyber or routing pressure on regional networks supporting Ukrainian data flows. The most likely broader escalation remains below direct NATO military confrontation but increases risk premiums for European technology, telecom, and financial assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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