Possible scenario
Temporary Gulf Disruption
35% Chance
Isaias brings tropical-storm to low-end hurricane conditions across parts of the central or western Gulf, forcing temporary shutdowns. Refining capacity and offshore production are affected for several days, but inspections find limited structural damage.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Tickers
- VLO-1.1%
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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