Possible scenario
Storm Weakens Offshore
40% Chance
Isaias fails to strengthen materially after becoming the season's first Atlantic hurricane and tracks far enough offshore to avoid a major refining hit. Precautionary evacuations by Shell, Chevron and others are reversed quickly, and the market removes a modest weather premium from crude and refined-products pricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+0.6%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.