Possible scenario
Direct Refining Hit
20% Chance
Isaias makes a damaging landfall close to a major refining corridor, taking a meaningful share of Gulf Coast capacity offline. Markets react to a sharper near-term supply squeeze in fuel and crude logistics, though the event remains a regional energy shock rather than a broad macro crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.