Possible scenario
Parliamentary Deadlock Returns
27% Chance
Opposition parties refuse to grant political cover for austerity, reviving the pattern of budget standoffs and no-confidence votes seen since 2024. The government's narrow room for compromise leaves France vulnerable to another institutional impasse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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