Possible scenario
Budget Deal Holds
38% Chance
The government secures enough support or abstentions from centrist, conservative, and moderate opposition deputies to keep the €43 billion package largely intact. This is the most stabilizing path because France's borrowing costs and Scope's downgrade give lawmakers a strong incentive to avoid another immediate fiscal rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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