Possible scenario
Escalation Hits Exports
25% Chance
Iran or aligned groups treat the bypass effort as a strategic challenge and intensify pressure on Gulf export infrastructure. This outcome keeps Hormuz central to the oil shock and raises the probability of direct U.S. or GCC military involvement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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