Possible scenario
Treasury Exposure Declines
25% Chance
China's gold accumulation is interpreted alongside falling Treasury holdings as part of a durable shift away from dollar reserve concentration. The impact is most visible in rates and dollar sentiment, though orderly Treasury auctions limit near-term stress.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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