Possible scenario
Steady Diversification Continues
45% Chance
China continues adding gold at a measured pace while gradually reducing reliance on dollar assets. The move remains consistent with the post-2022 trend of reserve diversification rather than an abrupt break with Treasurys.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
Tickers
- NGT+2.2%
- +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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