Possible scenario
Other Central Banks Follow
15% Chance
China's persistence encourages more emerging-market central banks to disclose or expand gold purchases. The outcome reinforces official-sector demand for bullion but remains a reserve-management story rather than a systemic shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.2%
Tickers
- +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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