Possible scenario
Limited Strike Proceeds
38% Chance
CENTCOM's finalized plan is translated into a short, high-intensity campaign against Iranian nuclear, missile and IRGC command targets. Washington tries to keep the operation time-limited and signals that it is not seeking regime change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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