Possible scenario
Iran Preempts Regionally
20% Chance
Tehran treats the finalized CENTCOM plan as evidence that an attack is imminent and decides to move first. Iranian missiles, drones and proxy units target U.S., Israeli and Gulf assets to complicate the opening phase of a U.S. campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.