Possible scenario
Diplomatic Delay
27% Chance
The strike plan is used primarily as coercive leverage while Oman, Qatar and European governments press Tehran for concessions. The U.S. keeps carriers in theater but delays execution to test whether Iran will cap enrichment and halt missile attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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