Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Deepens
42% Chance
The NRCC cash cuts are interpreted as evidence that House Republicans are triaging seats they no longer believe they can defend efficiently. With Democrats already leading the generic ballot and Cook Political Report moving seats away from Republicans, donors and outside groups increasingly price in a Democratic House majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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