Possible scenario
Fiscal Standoff Deepens
32% Chance
The fragmented National Assembly blocks credible deficit measures, and investors conclude that France’s debt path is worsening faster than official projections. The yield move becomes a broader test of French political capacity rather than a one-day market adjustment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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