Possible scenario
Fiscal Compromise Emerges
20% Chance
Macron’s camp and parts of the opposition agree on a limited fiscal package to reassure bond investors. The measures are unlikely to solve France’s debt problem fully, but they could reduce near-term downgrade risk and pull yields back from crisis-sensitive levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.3%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.