Possible scenario
Regulated Stablecoin Upside
20% Chance
Circle benefits from being one of the most visible regulated dollar stablecoin issuers after Congress passed the 2025 stablecoin bill. Banks, brokerages, and payment firms increase USDC integrations, helping investors look past the current 7% profit retention rate.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- CRCL+6.8%
- COIN+1.6%
- V+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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