Possible scenario
Prolonged Forties Disruption
18% Chance
Talks break down and industrial action lasts long enough to affect Forties flows, loading programs, and the Dated Brent assessment process. With the market already squeezed by Gulf disruption, the same physical outage produces a larger price response than it would in a balanced oil market.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Utilities -0.3%
Tickers
- APA-3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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