Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates
22% Chance
Russia responds to Europe’s rejection by escalating economic retaliation rather than returning to the US truce proposal. Moscow has already rejected the Black Sea deal, making asset seizures, energy restrictions, or shipping pressure credible next steps.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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