Europe Holds Line

The most likely path is that Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Rome reject any principal unfreeze while preserving the G7 framework that uses profits from immobilized Russian assets. Europe argues that rewarding Moscow after its Black Sea truce rejection would weaken sanctions credibility and expose EU custodians to legal risk.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.