Possible scenario
Compromise Revives Talks
27% Chance
A revised diplomatic plan narrows the US proposal and gives Europe legal safeguards, keeping most Russian assets frozen while offering Moscow a conditional path to limited relief. This would reduce immediate confrontation while preserving leverage over the Black Sea and energy-truce negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance +0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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