Possible scenario
Hormuz Crisis Deepens
25% Chance
A sharper escalation remains plausible because Iran has already targeted U.S.-linked oil shipments and Gulf transfers. In this scenario, either Tehran creates a temporary closure risk in Hormuz or the United States launches a wider naval campaign to force the waterway open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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