Possible scenario
Diplomatic Price Relief
20% Chance
Despite the public rhetoric, both Washington and Tehran have incentives to prevent gasoline prices and shipping disruption from becoming economically destabilizing. Regional mediators, Gulf producers, and oil-consuming allies push for a pause, convoy guarantees, or additional supply measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.2%
- Consumer Services +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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