Possible scenario
Controlled Military Escalation
45% Chance
Trump's comments signal that the White House is willing to absorb political costs from gasoline prices rather than de-escalate quickly. The most likely path is a renewed but bounded U.S. campaign against Iranian military and energy-linked targets while Tehran keeps pressure on Gulf shipping without fully closing Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Consumer Services -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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