Possible scenario
Limited Official Probe
40% Chance
The most likely path is a formal but bounded inquiry through a coroner, parliamentary committee, or police review. MPs secure procedural scrutiny, but authorities avoid immediately alleging foul play or widening the case into a broader Epstein-Lutnick investigation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.