Possible scenario
Spectacle Over Substance
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Texas rally remains a political-media event rather than a durable diplomatic channel. Trump continues to tease a Kim Jong Un meeting, but official U.S. policy remains anchored in sanctions, deterrence, and coordination with Seoul and Tokyo.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.