Possible scenario
Provocation Derails Talks
20% Chance
Pyongyang may resist the appearance that Rodman or Trump can choreograph a reunion on U.S. terms. A missile test or hostile statement would reinforce North Korea's bargaining pattern of escalating before negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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