Possible scenario
US-Israel Strike Proceeds
20% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem judge that Iranian preparations make delay too costly and proceed with strikes on missile, command, or nuclear-related targets. Iran's warning then becomes the prelude to escalation rather than successful deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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