Possible scenario
Signaling Holds Fire
42% Chance
Iran's warning functions mainly as deterrent signaling rather than the start of immediate action. With U.S. and Israeli forces already on alert, Tehran may calculate that threatening preemption raises the cost of attack without triggering a broader war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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