Possible scenario
Limited Iranian Preemption
25% Chance
Iran acts on the threat with a calibrated preemptive operation intended to show capability while limiting casualties. This is plausible because Tehran may believe a contained strike can disrupt an imminent attack plan and preserve deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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