Possible scenario
Trump Endorses Vance
52% Chance
Trump gives Vance an explicit endorsement for the 2028 Republican nomination, likely before the field fully forms. Given Vance's lead in GOP polling and his status as the MAGA-aligned vice president, this is the baseline path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.