Possible scenario
Trump Backs Rival
13% Chance
Trump unexpectedly decides that another Republican, most plausibly Marco Rubio, is a stronger general-election candidate. This would be a genuine political surprise because Vance has spent two years building MAGA credibility from inside the administration.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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