Possible scenario
Talks Without Breakthrough
30% Chance
Turkey and Iran continue coordination but fail to secure enforceable commitments from the Houthis, Israel, or the United States. This is a realistic middle path because all sides gain from dialogue but retain leverage through ambiguity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.