Possible scenario
Managed De-escalation
45% Chance
Turkey uses its channels with Tehran to narrow the conflict agenda to Yemen, Red Sea shipping, and limits on attacks tied to Israel. Iran preserves influence with the Houthis while accepting a temporary reduction in visible escalation to keep diplomacy with Ankara and Washington alive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.