Possible scenario
Evidence Fails to Broaden
20% Chance
The investigation may still find suspicious Iranian contacts without developing enough public or court-admissible evidence for a major confrontation. In that case, the story remains serious but contained, and markets largely look through it.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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