Possible scenario
Broader IRGC Network
25% Chance
Investigators uncover a larger recruitment and surveillance network tied to Iranian military or IRGC intermediaries. This would turn the incident from a single-site security breach into a wider counterintelligence case across the UK and allied countries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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