Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates Digitally
22% Chance
Russia may answer the attacks with cyber operations, electronic-warfare activity, and renewed strikes against Ukrainian communications and data infrastructure. This would raise short-term geopolitical risk but would still likely remain below a systemic global-market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Telecommunications -0.6%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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