Possible scenario
Consumer Demand Spillover
20% Chance
Subprime auto delinquencies become a signal that lower-income households are pulling back. The damage spreads from finance companies to automakers, dealers, and discretionary retailers through tighter credit and weaker vehicle affordability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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