Possible scenario
ABS Funding Tightens
25% Chance
The delinquency high translates into wider spreads in subprime auto asset-backed securities and tougher warehouse funding terms. This scenario is plausible because Tricolor and PrimaLend have already shown that weaker lenders can lose market access quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.