Possible scenario
Trump Fires Hegseth
45% Chance
Trump concludes that keeping Pete Hegseth through a lame-duck impeachment vote would prolong damaging headlines after Republicans' expected House loss. The White House removes him quickly and argues the personnel change makes impeachment unnecessary.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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