Possible scenario
Negotiated Delayed Exit
18% Chance
The White House avoids an immediate firing but negotiates a timetable for Hegseth to leave after key Pentagon business is completed. This lets Trump claim control while giving House Republicans a reason to delay or soften the impeachment push.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.