Possible scenario
Impeachment Vote Proceeds
25% Chance
Trump decides firing Hegseth would look like a concession and tells Republicans to fight the vote. Massie, Democrats, and a small bloc of Republicans force a floor confrontation during the lame-duck session.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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