Possible scenario
Palestinian Mobilization Escalates
20% Chance
The mosque attack could become a mobilizing incident for Palestinian factions, local committees, and the Palestinian Authority, especially during the symbolically important olive harvest. The most likely mobilization remains protests and strikes, but a violent incident could trigger a sharper Israeli security response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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