Possible scenario
NATO Hardens Posture
20% Chance
Romania requests formal NATO consultations and allies move additional air-defense and surveillance assets to the Black Sea flank. The response is still calibrated, but the probability of a direct NATO-Russia incident rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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