Possible scenario
Corridor Partly Shuts
30% Chance
The strike causes insurers, tanker owners, and charterers to suspend or sharply restrict voyages through the Ukrainian alternative corridor and nearby Romanian waters. The disruption is significant for Black Sea commodities but remains geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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